Investing can often feel like a form of gambling—especially after the recent wave of meme stocks and crypto dart throws that captivated the nation. But when it comes to gambling, nothing beats some good ole fashion Super Bowl prop bets. And this year, there’s no shortage of finance-related Super Bowl prop bets to appeal to the even the most football agnostic among the personal finance community.

This year’s crop of props features a bet on Bitcoin and a lot of speculation that we’ll be force-fed crypto and NFT advertisements throughout the commercial breaks. Let’s take a look at some of these exotic prop bets for Super Bowl 56 (as a dumb American, I am partial to the non-Roman numeral version).

But first, the OG of finance-related prop bets: the coin toss. As a spare change enthusiast, nothing gets the juices flowing quite like the opening flip of a coin before a sporting event.

Betting the Super Bowl coin toss

SB LVI – Coin Toss 

Heads (-101)

Tails (-101)

This is obviously a literal coin flip as far as odds are concerned, but perhaps we can glean something from historical results to predict the future performance of the flip. That usually works.

A few things stand out. Tails never fails, except for 26 times—including last year’s Super Bowl. Even still, Tails leads the all-time matchup with arch nemesis Heads, 29-26. And we haven’t seen consecutive Heads flipped since a five-year reign from 2009-13. Remarkably, the last seven teams to win the coin toss have lost the game!

Looking specifically at this year’s participants, the Rams and Bengals, here’s a fun fact: the Rams have never lost a Super Bowl coin flip (4-0), while the Bengals have never won one (0-2). The Bengals lost to Tails on both occasions (1982, 1989), while the Rams have won their four tosses with an even 2-2 Heads/Tails split (1980, 2000, 2002, 2018). The Rams—the visiting team despite playing in their home stadium in Los Angeles—will make the call this year.  

Give me the Rams winning the toss with a Tails call for a wager of one Dogecoin, please. RESULT: Bengals and Heads. Per usual, the exact opposite of my prediction.

Also of note, one Super Bowl has gone to overtime, necessitating an additional coin flip in 2016 between the Patriots and Falcons, which the Patriots won on a heads call—the opposite result of the game’s opening toss. Since this prop bet only deals with the opening flip, it is not included in the chart.

Tracking Bitcoin during the Super Bowl

Here’s an interesting and impossible to predict prop that is sure to garner plenty of attention:

What Will Happen To The Price Of Bitcoin During The Super Bowl?

Price of Bitcoin goes up (-125)

Price of Bitcoin goes down (-105)

The thinking here is likely that, due to the apparent expectation that viewers will be flooded with crytpo commercials during the most highly viewed television program of the year, said cryptocurrencies will experience an increase in price. As such, the betting favorite is that the price of Bitcoin will go up.

I’m not so sure. I think this is just as much a coin flip as the actual coin flip, and would probably side with the better odds if I had to choose. Alas, Bitcoin is not an actual coin. All we can do is flip out about the price movement either way.

Expect crypto and NFT commercials galore

It doesn’t seem to be a matter of if, but when for crypto and NFT commercials.

Which crypto company commercial will be shown first? 

Crypto.com (-200)

FTX (+150)

Yes, you can bet on which company—between Crypto.com and FTX—will be the first to introduce themselves to millions of new eyeballs. Mind you, via commercials on standard cable television purchased using fiat currency. That’s so web 1.0. Both of these companies have purchased Super Bowl spots and are likely to have plenty of additional competition.

If crypto isn’t your speed, how about guessing which NFT will be the first to spark the “what’s an NFT?” conversation at your Super Bowl gathering? NFT might as well stand for Non-Football Time during the Super Bowl, when Rams and Bengals cede their animalistic airtime to Apes of all varieties and personality traits.

Which NFT will be shown first during any commercial 

Nouns (-150)

Bored Ape Yacht Club (+150)

VeeFriends (+200)

Mutant Ape Yacht Club (+400)

World of Women (+500)

Beeple (+600)

CloneX (+1000)

CryptoPunks (+1200)

Cool Cats (+1600)

Doodles (+2500)

I have legitimately only heard of a couple of these, which is why I will have fun staying poor.

What ever happened to the Dow Jones Super Bowl prop bet?

Back in the day, any degenerate had the ability to bet on how the Dow Jones would perform on the Monday following the Super Bowl. It stems from the belief that the winner of the Super Bowl plays a role in predicting the market’s annual performance. Unfortunately the Dow Jones prop no longer appears to be available. What a shame!

The Dow Jones Monday performance prop was always a natural cross section for finance nerds watching their first and only football game of the year. Perhaps the futures market was too much of an indicator of this prop result, or there is simply more interest in crypto and NFT action than boring old stocks. Either way, we can all hope that any money lost betting on the coin flip will be made back courtesy of boring old index funds as early as the next day.

Super Bowl prop bets have nothing on the stock market

I’ve tried in the past to spin my fantasy football hobby as a side hustle in an attempt to justify the time and money that I spend on that activity. This justification often ignores the fact that the goal of a side hustle is to make money, not lose it. I’ve managed—humble brag here—to eek out a small profit between fantasy leagues with buddies and a few lucky daily fantasy breaks, but I recognize that my odds on DraftKings are no better than simply playing the lottery. And I’m OK with that! You should approach any prop bet fun in the same fashion.

If you are betting on Super Bowl prop bets, for the love of all that is holy, don’t overextend yourself. After all, this isn’t your Robinhood account. This is real money!

Given my fantasy football “expertise” and lost hours spent watching football over the past year, surely I must have an actual prediction on the game, right?

Meh. Flip a coin.

A Look At The All-Time Super Bowl Indicator Results