You’re Always Going To Miss Out On Tesla
In times when everybody seems to be day trading—and winning big—I need to remind myself: you’re always going to miss out on Tesla. And Bitcoin. And any other market success story that trickles into the mainstream news cycle.
Maybe you won’t miss out, but I sure will.
Why am I so sure that I’ll miss out on these opportunities? Simple. Because I don’t seek them out. Though I’ve pledged to dabble a little more in individual stocks, the percentage of that dabbling is never going to be a significant portion of my portfolio. While FOMO reigns supreme when market-illiterate acquaintances brag of big Robinhood gains, the reality is that I’m not going to put myself in a position to benefit all that much from a 10-bagger.
That time I almost bought Tesla
While I may lament not investing in Tesla, I have to ask myself: how much Tesla stock would I have bought? A few years ago, I had been looking at a small position in Tesla. I decided against the volatility. Instead, I purchased some Twitter stock (whoops)—a whole $2,000 worth.
Had I purchased Tesla instead, and held on for the ride, I’d be looking at north of $20,000 on that investment. By all accounts, a ridiculous return on investment. Nobody is sneezing at $20,000. However, in the grand scheme of things, with a best-case-scenario and perhaps once-in-a-lifetime stock, I’d have added only an additional $20k to a $400k portfolio. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll take an additional $20 grand. But I know myself. For me, individual stocks usually aren’t worth the stress, and the amounts of money that I invest in them are miniscule relative to my overall portfolio. As much as I’m envious of newly-minted Teslannaires, I have to be honest with myself. I wouldn’t be a Teslannaire even if I had invested in Tesla.
Miss out on Tesla and buy the index
As Michael Scott once said that Wayne Gretzky said, “you miss 100 percent of the shots you don’t take.” And they’re both right. My lack of willingness to shoot for the moon might mean that I miss out on generational opportunities like Tesla and Bitcoin.
Thirty-something Boomer that I am, though, I’m going to continue to dollar cost average into my trusty index funds. Index funds that have returned very satisfactory gains over the last handful of years. If that’s a little too risk averse, so be it. Though I’d hardly call holding nearly 100 percent of my assets in stocks “risk averse.” Besides, with trusty old VTSAX, I can talk myself into the fact that I technically do own a small portion of Tesla via the index, as with every other stock in the U.S. market. At least, that’s how I help myself get to sleep at night. That and booze.
Slow and steady doesn’t always win the race, but it always gets to the finish line. I’d rather guarantee that I get there than get there a little quicker at the risk of flaming out entirely. The key is to know yourself and your own risk profile. I remember what it felt like to lose real money on penny stocks as an idiot college kid. I know I simply don’t have the risk tolerance to stomach the massive swings of some of these volatile individual companies, even if the potential return is 10x my investment or greater.
The allure of individual stocks remains
As for my Twitter investment—it’s fine. It’s actually significantly outpaced the S&P 500 itself since I purchased it. But it doesn’t change my financial picture one way or another. It simply provides me with another ticker to look at on my Apple stocks app. It also serves as a reminder that picking individual stocks is hard—regardless of how easy Tesla has made it seem over the last year.
The point isn’t that I chose wrong in the Tesla vs. Twitter head-to-head matchup, though obviously I did. The point is that even if I guess right—and that’s all I’m doing is guessing—it wouldn’t result in life-changing money at the dollar amounts I’m playing around with.
Even as someone fully committed to the VTSAX approach, I still need to remind myself why I remain a largely passive investor. Sometimes, I need to see that reminder with small amounts of money in my own portfolio. For me, the biggest reason to invest in individual stocks is to remind myself why I generally don’t invest in individual stocks.
Even if that means missing out on the next Tesla, or the current one.
Hi Impersonal Finance
Good read! I’ve missed out on Tesla for years as well. I finally bought one Tesla stock in 2020 before the share split. Glad I did it, the position more than doubled, but it is a bit as in your example: I would have seen a multi-fold increase of my investment, had I pulled the trigger several years earlier.
But you put it very well. Investing is a long term oriented process, ETF-Investing and/or steadily adding positions and reinvesting dividends will build up the portfolio nicely over the long haul. I like to buy in tranches, dollar cost averaging. We don’t have to swing to the fences. We don’t have to find the next Tesla. Just consistently taking stakes in quality businesses, and this will add all up just fine.
Cheers
I finally got some Tesla exposure via the ARKK fund (which hasn’t done well since I bought it haha). You really have to focus on the long term and not stress yourself out with the daily fluctuations.
I fully expect that, when all is said and done, the Tesla stock history chart will look more like Blackberry’s (BB) than Apple’s (AAPL)
Blackberry up 3% today! BUY BUY BUY. That’s an interesting comp–first in the space doesn’t guarantee staying power. Though Blackberry didn’t have an army of Robinhooders behind it. For the most part, I’m going to remain a curious observer while I keep piling into the index.
Great points! Slow and steady is what matters. I do own individual stocks but like you any significant increase would not be material overall. It would be amazing but not something I am counting on.
As specifically for Tesla I am surprised it continues up. At some point people will lose their shirts, as the music will stop. When you see it continue to go up and the FOMO grow it is an interesting case.
Thanks for sharing IF.
We’ll see what happens, but Tesla is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. It’ll be interesting to see how much higher it can climb. At this point, it feels like the stock price is already accounting for the potential of exclusive Tesla freeways… on Mars.
I once was in your position. Relatively small investments (less than 10,000) that wouldn’t impact my life. But I decided to show up every day and learn something new. As time went on my knowledge began to compound.
After years of this, I can afford to make larger and larger bets. Portfolio sizing is still important because there are uncertainties and I still make (mostly profitable) mistakes. However, investing is so much more than gambling. Its probabilities and anticipating multiple outcomes. If it’s not fun, don’t play and get average returns. Nothing wrong with that.
The way I see it, if you don’t enjoy the process and enjoy thinking about your investments everyday, don’t invest directly in common stocks.
For what it is worth, most people could never imagine Tesla trading at the multiple that it is. I wouldn’t be upset with sitting out that ride. Egregious valuations are one of the primary reasons I sell. Good thing there are 10’s of thousands of stocks available to you. Never let one mistake eat you alive, learn from it and move on.
Love watching your net worth grow, TPM! Funny that knowledge really does compound in much the same way as investments. Unlock one mystery and it opens your understanding toward the next topic, and so on.
I love thinking about money all day every day, which is why I’ve been surprised at my lack of enjoyment with individual stocks. I tend to beat myself up for no reason when I miss an “obvious” winner. My hindsight is 20/20, for sure.
Even though I could afford to throw a little more at some lottery tickets, I haven’t really crossed even the 1% range of my portfolio on any individual stock. Which I guess makes sense, considering I always seek out the $5 blackjack tables…
i’ll be posting this month about my experience with plug power stock. i owned a lot of it back in ’13 and ’14 and made some money when i sold it. it was a $2 stock back then and is a $70 stock today but it hung around that $1-3 level until just last year making it “dead money” for about 6 years and it’s hard to watch you money flounder for that long. i have brokerage screen shots to prove it or it didn’t happen, right?
you know how we roll with individual stocks. it took quite a bit of time and consistently buying into them to reach life-changing amounts. i learned a lot of lessons along the way including the leave things alone and let the winners ride lesson and it ain’t as easy as it sounds. i’m sure you’ll do fine with a measured approach with some potential life changers sprinkled in for fun. rock on!
I look forward to reading that one! You are definitely an inspiration on the individual stock front. As you’ve said, it’s something you enjoy and you’ve been able to learn a lot throughout the course of that enjoyment. I’m finding, to my slight surprise, how much I don’t have the stomach for it. I like the idea of individual stock picking, but it’s an anxiety riddled exercise for me that I haven’t quite figured out how to get a handle on. Keep crushing it with your portfolio and I’ll keep ogling with envy!
Spot on! This definitely helps keep regret at a minimum. Honestly how much would we have even been able to purchase in the first place? Small amounts that would have been small gains. Any gain is better than none but I appreciate the perspective here. Thanks IF!
Exactly–I’ll take a 1,000% percent gain, don’t get me wrong haha. But really unlikely that I would even hold on for that long before rebalancing to allocate some of those gains into VTSAX.
There are alway losses of opportunity. If I bought Apple stock instead of my first Apple computer and or Apple iPhone I would have been better off.
Very true–Imagine how many people have purchased Teslas instead of their stock! Financial Samurai actually DID buy the stock instead, but unfortunately didn’t hold on for the ride! https://www.financialsamurai.com/forums/stocks-and-index-funds/my-friend-bought-a-new-tesla-model-3-i-bought-tesla-stock/
This is EXACTLY what I needed to hear, IF. Really great post that grounds us all down to reality. As much as the crazy returns that Tesla and Bitcoin may bring, if you invest very little, the market value is still such a small portion of our portfolios. Slow and steady wins the race!
Haha glad I could tell you what you needed to hear! I’m such a wimp with anything outside of VTSAX that those dollar amounts are going to remain small. I’ll still probably play around with a little cash, but not at numbers that are going to significantly accelerate my net worth.
Totally with you. I see stock picking like gambling and have zero appetite for that. I also know that if I had an enormous success in picking a stock that suddenly made me a millionaire, I probably wouldn’t stop there. I’d be overconfident in my abilities and search for the next big rush–and I’d end up losing it all. I’m better off picking a path like index funds and committing to staying on it as a way of tying my hands. Besides, although stocks and real estate haven’t been seeing increases like with Tesla, they’re doing quite well these days!
Hard to complain about being invested in the market in any way, shape or form as of late! I really just don’t spend enough time on it for it to be much more than gambling. And while gambling can be fun (especially if you’re winning!), I need to remember that that’s all it really amounts to for me. Auto pilot indexing has served me well financially while eliminating much of the stress. If it ain’t broke…
For every person who made a fortune on Tesla, someone lost their shirt. I will also never own Tesla, and I do already buy individual stocks. Tesla should only be listed on the Las Vegas stock exchange, because you’re just rolling dice.
But, more seriously, I would never stay in a stock long enough to make a Tesla fortune. It went up over 700% last year. I would have sold at 50% gain.
That’s a great point–not only do you have to get it right, you also have to hold on tight. No one ever went broke taking 50 percent profits!